Monday, May 06, 2013

Local Sourcing of Renewables – Desirable? Legal? Inconsistent?

Colorado’s Senate Bill 13-252, which passed through the General Assembly strictly on a partly line vote and which will presumably be signed into law by Governor Hickenlooper, accomplishes three principal objectives:
  1. It expands the renewable energy obligation of the state’s rural electric cooperatives and their wholesale provider, Tri-State G&T; 
  2. Adds electrical generation fueled by captured coal mine methane and syngas from the pyrolysis of municipal solid waste to the eligible energy resources for compliance with the RES; and
  3. Removes the in-state multiplier for compliance with the RES. 
In a column a few weeks ago (click here), I spoke about this bill when it was first introduced and how it was being shepherded through the legislature. One of my principal concerns was that it perpetuates the nonsensical, opaque, retail rate impact calculation in the Colorado RES that has been circumvented at every opportunity by Colorado’s two investor owned utilities with the complicity of legislators and regulators. Though this retail rate mythology persists, I am less concerned about the co-ops abusing it at the expense of their ratepayers than has been done by the IOUs. 

Today I would like to focus on the in-state multipliers which grant a preference to Colorado-based projects over those from out of state. The rationale for eliminating the in-state preference was an acknowledgment that it would likely be found to be an unconstitutional violation of the dormant commerce clause of the U.S. Constitution (Article I which expressly grants to Congress the power to regulate commerce among the states). OK, fair enough, though there are probably ways around that prohibition such as requiring that the project actually deliver energy into Colorado’s grid in order to be eligible for the RES. 

But today, out of Ontario, Canada comes word that the World Trade Organization has ruled against the province’s local content requirements for receipt of incentives paid to producers of renewable energy (click here). While not strictly the same as the in-state preference under Colorado’s RES, the parallels are obvious. Moreover, recall that there has been criticism of wind production tax credits that have been claimed by developers (domestic and foreign) because of the high foreign content of wind turbine generators (especially the generators and gear boxes). Hence, at a national level we find local preferences to be illegal and at an international level we now find local sourcing requirements to be equally problematic. So much for the argument about the economic development benefits of state renewable standards – they may exist but only if the lower transportation costs of local sourcing outweigh the lower costs of foreign produced goods. 

On the other hand, out in Nevada, the legislature is considering a bill to close certain loopholes in Nevada’s renewable standard – coincidentally, also Senate Bill 252 (see the report in the Las Vegas Sun). This bill would ratchet down the amount of energy efficiency credits that can be used toward RPS compliance. According to Nevada’s Governor, the law should not allow the utility “…to meet the portfolio standard by handing out energy-efficient light bulbs at Home Depot.” Seems reasonable. Ironically, Colorado’s Senate Bill 13-272, which would have required that 30 percent of gas-utility DSM funds be dedicated toward more substantive technologies such as solar thermal and ground source heat pumps was killed in committee (see my post on this topic here). Hence, our DSM programs remain focused on energy-efficient light bulbs handed out at Home Depot… and perhaps Lowes.

Friday, April 19, 2013

Comments on Colorado Senate Bill 272 Encouraging Greater Use of Renewable Thermal Technologies in DSM Programs

On April 18, the Colorado Senate Agricultural, Natural Resources and Energy Committee took up SB13-272 which encourages greater use of renewable thermal technologies in utility DSM programs.  I have been advocating such treatment, especially with respect to ground source heat pumps, for several years.  The hearing room was packed with both proponents and opponents and, unfortunately, time constraints did not allow me to testify in favor of the bill.  Below are the prepared remarks that I would have delivered if given the opportunity.



Comments on SB13-272

Richard P. Mignogna, Ph.D., P.E.

Madam Chairperson and members of the committee, thank you for this opportunity to testify in favor of SB13-272.  I am presently the principal in a small consulting firm, Renewable & Alternative Energy Management, LLC in Golden.  Prior to founding my business, I served for more than 6 years on the Staff of the Colorado Public Utilities Commission as a Professional Engineer and Senior Authority on Renewable Energy.  I was, essentially, the fiscal note attached to the legislation implementing Amendment 37.  I am testifying before you today not on behalf of any trade, industry, or advocacy group, but only as an independent, knowledgeable individual to help you evaluate this proposed legislation and act in the public interest.

While at the PUC, I spoke on numerous occasions about the potential for ground source heat pumps, in particular as part of DSM programs.  Hence, it is encouraging to see some of those concepts coming to fruition in this bill.  It has not been a surprise to me that what are termed highly energy efficient renewable thermal technologies have been underrepresented in utility DSM & energy efficiency programs.  Today, you may hear about the low price of natural gas as a contributing factor, but this was true even when natural gas prices were three times what they are now. 

The reasons for this are complex and have more to do with the difficulty in evaluating the benefit/cost ratio of renewable thermal technologies such as solar thermal and ground source (aka geothermal) heat pumps.  On the electric side, determining the energy savings of a new dishwasher or refrigerator, or even CFLs and LEDs is a relatively simple matter.  But, evaluating the energy savings and environmental benefits of thermal technologies used for space conditioning and water heating is more difficult.  No less real, just more difficult.

For example, one must consider whether the installation will be in a heating dominated climate or a cooling dominated climate.  On the heating side, what fuel is being displaced? Propane? Electricity? Natural gas?   On the cooling side, ground source heat pumps displace electricity used to power air conditioning, and naturally the environmental benefits will depend on what fuel would have been used to generate that electricity.  So they perform double duty.  But, while they are extraordinarily efficient, they do have a high first cost and retrofits can be especially challenging, which is why support through DSM programs is especially important.

I understand that the introduced version of SB13-272 has been significantly modified by a strike-below amendment which is presently under consideration.  Nonetheless, I still believe that even the current version of SB13-272 is a positive and welcome step forward in energy efficiency and in fostering consumer applications of renewable thermal energy technologies.

The introduced version of the bill did contain a few notable deficiencies, some of which have been remedied in the current amended version.  The first and most critical was removal of the apparent requirement for cost recovery of a portion of utility DSM expenditures in base rates where they could have been hidden from scrutiny by the ratepayers who are paying for these programs.  This has been one of the principal difficulties with RES funding, much of which is hidden in the Electric Commodity Adjustment (ECA) rider.  Also, present statute §40-3.2-103(2)(c)(I), created by HB07-1037, specifically anticipates cost recovery for DSM without the need to file a rate case, hence the present DSMCA.  With that said, current statute §40-3.2-103(2)(c)(II) and PUC rules already provide utilities with an option to file for base rate recovery of DSM expenditures, so it is not clear that this provision was needed in this bill.

Next, the cap on DSM expenditures of 4 percent of revenues is probably excessive.  Consider that the RESA for the RES is presently set at only 2 percent.  Current gas DSM rules require expenditures of the greater of 2 percent of base rate revenues or ½ percent of total revenues.

A useful provision in the introduced bill, which has been stricken in the amended version, called for utilities to devote 30 percent of their DSM expenditures to renewable thermal energy technologies such as ground source heat pumps and solar thermal systems.  Replacing the 30 percent provision is language that merely instructs the PUC to “give [its] fullest consideration to DSM plans that incorporate a diversity of DSM measures.” The deletion is unfortunate because I don’t believe that the remaining provisions of the bill (i.e., replacing the total resource cost test with a utility resource cost test) will provide sufficient support for these technologies to move the needle. 

The only problem with the 30 percent clause in the original bill was that it called for the PUC to direct utilities to “allocate at least thirty percent of [their] DSM program funding to the development of renewable thermal technologies.” This should merely have been reworded to deployment of renewable thermal technologies since we’re not talking about an R&D program but incentives to encourage consumers to adopt these technologies.  With present DSM programs, ratepayers are already making a substantial investment in energy efficiency.  This bill is needed to help direct that investment more effectively.

Both the introduced and amended versions of the bill instruct the PUC to direct such expenditures by 01 July 2013, but they do not require a rule making identifying the eligible technologies until 30 September 2013.  In my experience, the rule making needs to come first.

With these few, simple fixes, I believe that SB13-272 will be worthy of your support and I encourage its adoption.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

A Controversial Bill to Expand Colorado's Renewable Energy Standard

An editorial in the 10 April 2013 issue of The Denver Post discusses a proposal recently introduced in the Colorado Senate to extend and expand Colorado's Renewable Energy Standard.  You can read the Post's editorial here.

Those who are interested can track the progress of Senate Bill 13-252 on the Colorado General Assembly website.  In expressing its concern with this bill, the Post states "A 2007 law requires the co-ops and their utility supplier, Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, to meet a 10 percent renewable standard by 2020."  This is only partly true.  Co-ops are held to a 10-percent by 2020 standard in the RES, but Tri-State G&T, the wholesale supplier to 18 of them, has no compliance obligation at all.  SB13-252 would put Tri-State under a 25-percent standard.

While The Post argues that the legislature may be moving too fast on this bill -- and they may be right -- we have long held that it is fundamentally inequitable for approximately half the state's electricity consumers (the 55 percent who are served by Xcel or Black Hills) to fund the RES obligation while muni and co-op customers enjoy a free pass, or nearly so.  With that said, the 2-percent rate impact limitation crafted in this bill is even more byzantine than the so-called rate impact limitation in the RES for investor-owned utilities (Xcel and Black Hills) which has been treated as merely an inconvenience to be circumvented at every opportunity.  A totally different approach to rate protection and renewable energy funding is called for than what we now have.  If you don't believe that, ask why Xcel's RESA deferred account is tens of millions of dollars in the red -- and upon which you're paying interest.

One of the more beneficial aspects of SB-252, however, is the addition of electricity generation using vented coal mine methane to the list of eligible RES resources.  That provision is clearly worthy of support.

Last, SB-252 also eliminates in-state preferences such as the 1.25 REC multiplier for Colorado-based projects.  This provision, many feel, is an acknowledgement that the suit against Colorado's RES, at least on that point as a violation of the Interstate Commerce Act, is likely to be successful.  But, rather than simply removing the multiplier, the bill's proponents apply the multiplier to all projects regardless of location without limitation, at least through 2014.  That is hard to justify as there are other mechanisms for implementing various preferences that would not violate the Commerce Act.

As I write this piece, SB-252 was recently passed out of the Senate State, Veterans, and Military Affairs Committee (a questionable committee assignment) and on to the Senate floor.  It will be interesting to see what happens to it from there.  



Saturday, September 29, 2012

Solar Doing Good

The other day I discovered that a team from Oakland, California based GRID Alternatives was in Colorado erecting solar PV systems on a dozen Habitat for Humanity homes in Lakewood, Colorado. So, I contacted Stan Greschner, director of GRID Alternatives’ Single-family Affordable Solar Homes (SASH) program to learn more. 

The GRID Alternatives SASH program began as part of the California Solar Initiative and provides low-cost (and in some cases no cost) PV systems to qualifying low income home owners. But there is more to it than that. GRID also leverages the efforts of numerous volunteers from local businesses, trade schools, and elsewhere in the community who learn about solar and gain skills in erecting PV systems. On the day I visited, Stan told me that they had about 30 workers on site each day, most of whom had never before installed a PV system. 

Stan Greschner with volunteers preparing to install a PV
system on a Habitat for Humanity home in Lakewood, Colorado.
A couple of years ago when I led the effort to develop the rules for Colorado Solar Gardens, Stan came out to help us think through how to incorporate a set aside for low income participants in that program. What came out of that was a requirement that 5% of solar garden capacity must be reserved for low income subscribers. At the time, we spoke of GRID’s hope to expand its program outside of California. With the Habitat homes in Lakewood, Colorado has the first GRID Alternatives project outside of California. I’m told that GRID plans to expand its program in Colorado and open a local office here. 

One of the completed systems at GRID Alternatives'
Lakewood, Colorado project.
What I find most encouraging about this program is that it provides utility assistance to those who need it the most while also training the volunteers who install the systems. And, ratepayer contributions into the renewable energy fund are put to good use… truly a win-win-win for all involved. To learn more about GRID Alternatives and the work they do, check out their website at www.gridalternatives.org.

Thursday, September 06, 2012

Fracking Wind Energy and the Production Tax Credit


OK, now that I’ve got your attention… you can’t possibly have a heartbeat and not be aware of ongoing disputes concerning two important energy sources: the expiring Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind energy and concerns over natural gas well hydraulic fracturing or fracking.  Aside from the fact that both of these issues have become highly politicized, what may be less obvious to many folks is just how closely related these two issues really are.
 
Wind energy proponents argue that without an extension of the PTC (which presently provides a tax credit of $22 per MWh produced for the first 10 years of a project’s life) new wind projects will come to a halt and jobs will be lost.  Hold that thought for a moment but reserve judgment.  On the other hand, the fracking discussion is dominated by environmental concerns with drilling and, in particular, how close drilling should be permitted to residential communities.  Back in June, I penned a guest commentary in The Denver Post concerning the apparent inconsistency in how these two energy sources were treated from a regulatory standpoint (click here for that column).  To wit, the state appears totally disinterested in the proximity of one type of industrial activity (wind) to your back door while claiming primacy in regulating the other.

What is getting lost in this conversation is the fact that the development of wind energy is dependent more on the price of natural gas than on the PTC.  When utilities, such as Xcel, make the case for a new wind energy development, it is based on a comparison to an equivalent amount of electrical generation from gas-fired generators.  While the PTC helps tilt that comparison toward wind, low natural gas prices shift the balance back in favor of gas generators.  And, what is keeping natural gas prices so low?  The development of previously unrecoverable shale gas resources using horizontal drilling and, yes, fracking.
 
On the one hand stands a more than 20-year-old energy industry (wind) that claims that it still needs a public subsidy “head start” to compete, and on the other we have an even older energy resource that owes its resurgence to technological advance.  Wind is among the least dense energy sources that we have, contributes to energy sprawl covering thousands of acres, and typically produces the most when demand is the least (i.e., the middle of the night).  Natural gas generators, in contrast, are relatively compact, flexible, and produce when demand is high.  The drilling, however, leads to its own kind of sprawl.  Importantly, as evidenced in recent Energy Information Agency reports, it is the increase in natural gas-fired generation that is primarily responsible for recent reductions in CO2 emissions from electrical generation.

Jobs are at stake with both energy sources so that argument is weak.  At what point in time does wind energy get weaned off the public subsidy – whether it be production tax credits or higher ratepayer costs that result from the Renewable Energy Standard?  Discussing the pros and cons of solar would consume more electrons than can be allotted to this post, so I won’t even begin to get into that, other than to say that there are both pros and cons there too.  The Administration’s all-of-the-above strategy is nonsense.  What is needed is an all-that-is-smart approach.
 
Environmental concerns with fracking are not totally without merit.  However, they emanate more from poor well completions and near surface drilling contamination than from what occurs deep underground.  And, I don’t believe that arguments calling for greater setbacks of drilling activity from residential communities are misplaced either.  Hence, Governor Hickenlooper’s recent suggestion that additional changes to the oil and gas drilling rules may be in order is well taken.  On the wind energy side, it is well past time that this industry got its costs in line so that it can compete head to head with other energy sources.  Cutting off the PTC cold turkey may not be in the public interest, but phasing it out over a few years may well be.  Wind needs to focus more on real engineering and less on financial engineering.  Both sources of energy will be important to the future development of sustainable clean energy generation.

Saturday, June 16, 2012

24 Heures Du Mans -- Now that's an auto race!

For this post, I thought we'd take a bit of a departure from our usual energy topics -- sort of.  This weekend will be the 80th running of the 24 Hours of Le Mans -- one of the world's most grueling auto races.  So, how does this fit in with our theme of emerging technologies?  Simple... the race track has long been where new technologies are developed and refined long before they make it to the consumer showroom.  Check out the pic below from the NY Times for two of the most high tech vehicles ever built.

Audi R18 E-Tron Quattro leading Toyota TS030 at Le Mans test day. NY Times
One of the things that makes Le Mans so intriguing is the LMP1 class which stands for Le Mans Prototype 1.  This is the class where the latest technologies are put to the test.  For instance, both of the vehicles in the picture above employ Kinetic Energy Recovery Systems (KERS).  "What is that?" you ask.  Think of it as a super regenerative breaking system that is common on current electric vehicles and hybrids.  While the regenerative breaking system on your Nissan Leaf, for instance, simply helps recharge the battery, in a KERS the energy recovered on braking going into a turn is then immediately used to provide a horsepower boost coming out of the turn.  The two vehicles above do this differently.  The Audi R18 E-Tron (a diesel vehicle by the way) employs a rapid response flywheel while the Toyota utilizes a capacitor to store the energy.  Very cool stuff.

And, in case you're wondering how a diesel could possibly win an auto race, the Audi shown above is no ordinary diesel -- it has won this race 10 of the last 12 years.  Le Mans will also feature hybrid vehicles and for 2013 there is also talk of a completely fossil free hydrogen-electric hybrid.  If you want to learn more about this years race, check out a recent article in the NY Times or go to the Le Mans website to learn about the different classes of vehicles.   

The race wraps up at 7:00am Sunday, 17 June (MDT).  If you can't find it on your TV, check out the live webcast here.

Saturday, May 26, 2012

Recognition for Ground Source Heat Pumps -- the little g in Geothermal

Over the years, proponents of some forms of geothermal energy have suffered from a bit of an identity crisis. There is, of course, Big G which generally refers to hydrogeothermal resources of the type that create geothermal electrical generation common to northern California, Nevada, Indonesia, etc. and shown below in the new Hudson Ranch I system that recently went online in the Salton Sea of California.
Big G also commonly refers to geothermal resources used for direct use as in hot springs resorts and the district heating system in Pagosa Springs, Colorado.
Then there is "little g" which refers variously to geothermal heat pumps (GHP), geoexchange, or, more appropriately, ground source heat pumps (GSHP) -- a fundamentally different energy resource and technology than Big G. It doesn't help that both Big G and little g, and which both suffer from a bit of a Rodney Dangerfield complex, are often discussed at the same conferences which only further confuses the two. Rather than a resource for electrical generation or direct use heating, ground source is better looked at as an energy efficiency device that can provide both heating and cooling for space conditioning (I won't go into the details here. Interested readers might want to start out with the Wikipedia entry). 

The basic problem with ground source is the high first cost of installing the loop field. While improving technology has increased the efficiency and cost effectiveness of the heat pump component of the system, there has been little improvement in the cost of installing the loop (see the excellent article by Tom Konrad in Forbes here). Thus, for residential systems in particular, GSHP remains at a competitive disadvantage -- especially in light of low natural gas prices. 

I have long argued that ground source deserves more recognition in utility demand side management/energy efficiency programs, most of which focus on weatherization programs (good) and nothing more sophisticated than rebates for kitchen appliances and compact fluorescent light bulbs (questionable). Some states have enhanced their renewable energy standards with new thermal energy standards. These have tended to focus more on solar hot water heating and, occasionally, biomass... still not much recognition for the only technology that provides both heating and cooling. 

During this legislative session in Colorado, a group convened to attempt to foster greater recognition for ground source in a thermal energy standard that was being discussed. Unfortunately, the single paragraph that discussed geothermal or ground source in what became Senate Bill 12-180 was lost in what morphed essentially into a biomass/forest conservation bill. That the bill was introduced late in the session and was tagged with a large fiscal note did not bode well for its prospects and it was soon killed in committee. That was probably just as well since the bill was a mess and the best it would have done would have been to create a thermal energy working group. In the present economic environment, and with little support for new incentive programs, I suspect that ground source is going to have to continue to rely on technological advance and new financial innovations (similar to the PPAs that have fostered greater PV adoption) to reduce the first cost to consumers so that it can compete with more established space conditioning technologies.

Saturday, May 19, 2012

World's Largest Concentrating PV System Goes Hot in Colorado!

Fans of utility-scale solar PV are likely aware of the world’s largest highly concentrating PV (HCPV) system that has been under construction in the heart of Colorado’s San Luis Valley. On May 10, Cogentrix Energy, LLC (a unit of Goldman Sachs) announced that it has achieved commercial operation at its 30MW HCPV project which will provide solar energy to Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo) for compliance with the utility’s wholesale DG obligation under Colorado’s Renewable Energy Standard. The Amonix MegaModule® assemblies that form the heart of this system rely on Fresnel lenses to concentrate solar irradiation 500 suns onto triple junction solar cells originally developed by SpectroLab (a Boeing company) as part of the US space program. Looking like something out of the movie Transformers, the project consists of over 500 60kW (nominal) dual axis trackers on approximately 225 acres approximately 14 miles NW of the southern Colorado town of Alamosa (click here for a Google map). 

Truly an impressive facility, this project was bid into the 2009 All Source Solicitation conducted as part of PSCo’s 2007 Electric Resource Plan (Colorado PUC docket 07A-447E). Electricity from the plant, estimated at approximately 75,000 MWh for the first full year of operation, is provided to PSCo under a 20-year PPA. Financing for the approximately $145 million project was facilitated by a $90.6 million loan guarantee from the US Department of Energy proving that not all DOE-backed funding necessarily had to result in Solyndra-like failures (in fact, there is a fundamental difference between providing a loan guarantee for an energy development project such as this and a manufacturing facility such as Solyndra). The one downside, albeit a significant one, is that the Colorado PUC exempted this project along with another 30MW project in the San Luis Valley developed by Iberdrola Renewables from the 2% rate cap in Colorado's renewable standard. As I’ve pointed out previously, compliance with Colorado’s RES has been achieved, and even exceeded, but at a cost far greater than the 2% rate cap stipulated in the statute. 

Back in October 2011, I had the opportunity to tour the facility with Cogentrix VP Jef Freeman while it was still under construction. Below are a handful of the pictures I took at that time.


Approaching the plant from the southeast, it is difficult to get a true appreciation for the scale of the facility.


Looking closer, it isn't clear if this is a solar facility or a spaceport!


Loading the Amonix MegaModule panel assemblies onto the pedestals.

Look close and you might see the workers attaching the panel assembly to the pedestal from below.

To get a feel for the scale, check out the pickup truck in comparison to the trackers.  The Solectria inverter on each tracker can be seen in the foreground.
When not tracking the sun, or stored due to high winds, the panels will remain horizontal as shown here.


All photos Copyright Richard Mignogna, 2011.













Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Discrepancies in Colorado Energy Land Use Policies


There is a discrepancy playing out in Colorado’s energy landscape and energy regulatory policy that may be poorly understood by officials and consumers alike.  It has to do with local control versus establishing statewide standards for siting energy facilities of all types.  

This legislative session has seen the introduction of a number of initiatives to enhance local control over the siting of oil and gas drilling activity largely intended to allow local jurisdictions to restrict the proximity of drilling activity to residential developments. These initiatives were opposed by, among others, the Hickenlooper administration and its cognizant regulatory agency, the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC).  The argument essentially put forth by COGCC was that there needs to be uniform standards for siting drilling activity and that it is the agency best qualified to monitor and regulate the industry and to establish and enforce such standards.  As a hoped-for solution to the dispute between factions seeking local control versus statewide control, the administration has convened a task force and charged it with an ambitious agenda of reconciling local concerns with state agency control in only a few weeks time.

In contrast, consider the regulatory regime governing the siting of electrical generation facilities.  While the state agency of competent jurisdiction most closely associated with the development of electrical generation facilities is the Colorado Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), with the possible exception of transmission line siting, it wields little influence in the siting of electrical generation facilities be they coal fired, natural gas fired, solar, wind, or otherwise.  Rather, satisfying environmental concerns, economic concerns, building permits, and land use issues for facilities outside of municipalities rests solely in the hands of county commissions through what is known as the 1041 permit process.  One of the areas in which the discrepancy between state control of oil & gas development versus local control of power generation has become most obvious is the siting of wind and solar renewable energy facilities, and one of the cases that has received considerable recent attention is the 1041 permit process for a concentrating solar power facility near the San Luis Valley town of Center in Saguache County.

The Saguache County project, proposed by California solar developer Solar Reserve, posits the development of two concentrating solar electric generation facilities known as “power towers.”  A number of groups expressed environmental, wildlife, view shed, and quality of life concerns with this proposal to construct two 656-foot towers smack in the middle of the Valley on land that is presently dedicated to agricultural use.  In a 2 – 1 decision, the Saguache County commissioners recently approved the Solar Reserve 1041 permit application.  In its decision, the County Commission eschewed the aforementioned concerns in favor of the promised economic impact that the development would have.  If you’re having difficulty envisioning what this project entails, consider that the development would create an industrial facility encompassing approximately six square miles, the central focus of which would be two towers that are only 50 feet short of the tallest building in downtown Denver.  It is difficult to envision how such a project, with the Sand Dunes National Park and Sangre de Cristo Mountains to the east and the San Juan Mountains to the west, fits into the character of what is largely a pristine agricultural area.

A similar issue concerning the state’s abrogation of its siting authority to local officials can be found in the siting of wind turbines.  Here too, the absence of any statewide siting rules is troubling.  Apparently, it is acceptable for state officials to take a hands-off approach to the construction of a massive 400-foot wind turbine with a life expectancy of 20 years or more 300 feet from your back door, leaving the decision to local officials, but only a state agency may weigh in on the drilling of an oil or gas well the same distance away.  This certainly seems inconsistent.  To be fair, COGCC at least maintains a database of all such drilling activity, issues permits, and monitors each well while CPUC in particular, and the state in general, seem strangely disinterested in regulating any aspect of the construction of wind or solar facilities having at least as great an impact.  Moreover, the public would likely find troubling the fact that CPUC does not even maintain a list or require the most minimal registration for any renewable energy generation facility, be it a $400 million wind farm or a $50,000 solar installation. Sadly, attempts at requiring CPUC to maintain such information in the past were met with resistance by public officials, utilities, and developers alike.
  
The concern here is not whether oil and gas development should fall under local or state jurisdiction.  Nor should this be construed as an argument in favor of limiting additional renewable energy development, as some will undoubtedly assume.  What is of concern is that there is a troubling inconsistency in the regulation of different energy sources based, apparently, on little more than political agenda.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

An Insider’s Perspective on Colorado's Renewable Energy Standard – Some Critical Thinking about Colorado's "Successful" RES

As indicated in Mark Jaffe’s article, Power Surge Slows (The Denver Post, January 22, 2012), Colorado’s Renewable Energy Standard (RES) has in many respects been one of the more successful ones in the country. With rare exception, such as California’s 33% by 2020 goal, it is certainly one of the most ambitious. But, there is more to understand before we declare it an unqualified success. Importantly, the slow-down described in the article did not have to occur if only the state’s principal utility, bolstered by lax regulatory oversight, had acquired renewable resources in a more fiscally responsible and sustainable manner.

Among the benefits derived from the RES is that Colorado has attracted a handful of big name manufacturers such as Vestas and General Electric in wind turbine and solar panel manufacturing, respectively. Hopefully their local operations will prosper in spite of a difficult economic climate and tenacious competition from abroad. Colorado also has had, until recently, a thriving small solar installer industry but its success was predicated on too-generous incentives that broke the Ratepayer Bank while the Public Utilities Commission was late in recognizing the severity of the problem. Mark Jaffe’s article noted that Xcel Energy’s renewable fund – known as the Renewable Energy Standard Adjustment (RESA) account – is $51 million in the red and headed for worse before it gets better. What is less well known is that the utility earns its Commission approved rate of return on this deficit – a great deal if you can get it.

Xcel has asserted that it has already met Colorado's 30% RPS clear out to 2028. On the surface, that sounds great. But let’s come back to that RESA deficit. What achieving compliance with the renewable standard a decade early really means is that ratepayers have been on the hook for resources that were not needed for compliance or to serve load. As the PUC Staff warned more than once, Xcel was purchasing “too much, too soon, at too high a cost” and that, especially with regard to the small solar program, this would lead to the same boom and bust that has afflicted myriad other solar incentive programs that over-compensated solar customers. One needn’t have been prescient to predict this outcome. Rather than stage its acquisition of renewable resources commensurate with the ramp-up in the RES, and in so doing take advantage of the rapidly declining cost of renewable energy in the process, Xcel spent future receipts from the renewable fund driving it deep into the hole until the deficit became so severe that even the most ardent supporters of renewable energy had to take notice. It was at that point that Xcel came to the PUC with a drastic plan to cut back on the incentives it was doling out to solar customers. Xcel and its customers were not alone. The same affliction befell the state’s other investor owned utility (IOU), Black Hills Colorado Electric, though at a much smaller scale. The result was inevitable – a boom and bust that did not have to be and one that the Commission’s staff warned about as early as 2007. Moreover, the slow-down described in Mark Jaffe’s article extends to the development of utility scale projects as well as the small solar market. 

Xcel has argued that, while it has exceeded the goals for the renewable energy mandate, it has stayed within the 2% cap established in the enabling legislation for the RES. This misrepresents the true situation due to the convoluted and opaque rate cap formula used in Colorado’s RES which makes it difficult to discern the actual rate impact. Xcel argues that it is only charging an additional 2% on each customer’s bill. That is true, but it does not consider the accrued liability in the hemorrhaging RESA deferred account nor does it include the cost of resources for which the PUC has granted a “waiver” from the rate impact calculation. As demonstrated in numerous PUC Staff analyses, when all of the costs are accounted for, the actual costs of renewable energy penetration in Colorado have far exceeded the 2% rate cap by any reasonable, common sense definition of the term. Unfortunately, the IOUs have been allowed to redefine the plain meaning of 2% in a way that masks the true cost of renewable energy in Colorado. Were this not the case, and had the PUC under the prior administration exercised proper oversight of the regulated utilities' renewable expenditures, the small solar industry in Colorado would not now be decrying the drastic, but necessary, reductions in incentive payments available to their customers. 

A sufficiently skeptical observer might ask why a utility that fought the imposition of the renewable standard so vigorously back in 2004 would later reverse course and spend more than necessary to blow the compliance targets away and brag that it has met its compliance obligation more than a decade early. Many observers believe that it is because the utility figured out how to make money at it! Bear in mind that the utility has invested none of its own money in renewable energy and is promised full recovery of every dime – often plus interest – of consumer funds that it does spend. In my post on the 12th of January, I wrote about the PUC's rejection of Xcel's attempt to profit unconscionably from this behavior (Click here for that column).

The evidence from multiple PUC proceedings is that Xcel has acquired renewable resources (primarily wind energy) that it does not need either to serve load or for RES compliance so that it can profit from the sale of the excess renewable energy credits (RECs) to other utilities. As I wrote in testimony in Xcel’s 2010 Amended Resource Planning proceeding, this provides the utility with a perverse incentive to acquire more RECs than needed, bought and paid for with interest by Colorado ratepayers, allowing the utility to profit on both ends of the transaction.

Not surprisingly, the utility has gone to great lengths to prevent the disclosure of this fact – something that the PUC's own Staff has warned about for several years now. But, the data do not lie. Fortunately, with a new governor and under the leadership of new PUC Chairman Joshua Epel, the Commission is now taking steps to right the ship. But it's a big job and it will take a while to pay down the deficit in the renewable energy accounts. Thus vigilance by an informed public is still needed. 

Unfortunately, balancing the renewable budget now will not mitigate the boom and bust I spoke about earlier or the need to transition to clean energy in a sustainable manner as the utility, in its current resource planning docket, has made it clear that it has very modest needs for additional renewable generation for some time to come. 

So, how do we move forward from here? Clearly we need to restructure some of the details of the RES including, most importantly, the way it is administered. Obviously, the widely discussed tax incentives available to renewable developers, including the soon to expire production tax credit for wind energy, are important, but the individual states have limited ability to influence that. So, here is a short list of things that we may want to consider:
  1. Modify the liberal REC banking rules, i.e. the shelf life of RECs, in the Colorado RES. At the present time, a REC may be used for compliance for as long as five years beyond the year in which it was generated. Restricting the bankability of RECs would more closely tie actual renewable generation to current compliance obligations and discourage making expenditures far in advance of requirements. 
  2. Consider a different mechanism for funding renewable energy development – perhaps a Public Benefits Fund paid into by all utility customers in Colorado with investment in renewable projects flowing back to the areas in approximate proportion to their level of contribution. As all the rest of us must do, set a transparent, firm budget and manage to it. 
  3. Increase the renewable compliance targets for the state’s rural electric coops and municipal utilities (presently only 10% by 2020) to something akin to that for the two investor owned utilities. The obligation for compliance with the renewable standard should be shared equally by all of the residents of Colorado, not just the 55% who are customers of the state’s two IOUs. Furthermore, it seems unfair for the availability of consumer benefits, such as solar incentive payments, under a statewide program such as the renewable energy standard to be solely a function of your address. 
  4. Perhaps the most important change would shift responsibility for administration of the renewable standard away from the utilities and into the hands of a public agency (perhaps the PUC or the Governor’s Energy Office) or a non-profit third party administrator. The state’s investor owned utilities, upon whom the bulk of the obligation for compliance with the renewable standard has fallen, have not shown themselves to be good stewards of the public’s investment in renewable energy. 
There are many people, including me, who would be willing to pay more than 2% to aid the transition to a clean energy infrastructure – if the money is spent responsibly. But, a promise made to the voters to limit the cost impact should be a promise kept. With proper management and guidance, compliance with the RES could have been achieved in a responsible manner and at reasonable cost. Unfortunately, you cannot build a sustainable energy infrastructure on the back of unsustainable economics.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Consumers go 2-0 in recent decisions at Colorado PUC

Consumers went 2-0 in important decisions at the Colorado PUC this week in cases involving the state's dominant utility, Xcel Energy.  One decision, yesterday's rejection of Xcel's request for interim "rate relief" (right, not really sure who is in need of the relief but that's what they called it) made the papers and the blogosphere this morning.  The other, an equally if not more important decision on Tuesday concerning the utility's request to keep 40% of the proceeds from the trading of what are known at Hybrid RECs (docket 11A-510E), received little if any notice because a) it is far more difficult to understand and b) the impact is less noticeable to consumers.... note, I said less noticeable, not less important.  

So, let's start with the 510E docket.  As I've written about here previously and in testimony before the commission as well as some other public arenas, the PUC has allowed Xcel to acquire "too much, too soon, at too high a cost" with the ultimate impact that the 2% rate impact limitation in the renewable standard statute has been circumvented by the adept use of misdirection, accounting chicanery, and political decision making.  But, why would a utility that fought the imposition of the renewable standard so vigorously then turn around and spend more than necessary to blow the compliance targets away and brag that it has met its compliance obligation more than a decade early? There is no way to fully explain the volumes of PUC Staff analysis and testimony in this small space, but the bottom line answer is that Xcel (aka Public Service Company of Colorado or PSCo) has figured out how to make money at it!  Keep in mind that the utility has invested none of its own money (zero, nada) in renewable energy and is promised full recovery of every dime -- plus interest -- of consumer funds that it does spend.  The unfortunate impact has been that consumers are being saddled with costs in excess of the statutory 2% rate cap.  Another impact that only a few understand is that, as I explained in testimony way back in the 2007 RES Compliance Plan docket, it would and -- and indeed has -- lead to a boom and bust in the Colorado renewable energy market.  

Hence, being flush with more RECs than needed for compliance under any scenario, Xcel saw an opportunity to sell its excess RECs to utilities in California that were having difficulty complying with that state's RPS.  The term "hybrid REC" came about because California, ever hungry for electricity, required that RECs generated outside the state be bundled with energy from another source that could be imported into the state.  In the process, the company has made an obscene profit from the sale of these excess RECs that have been bought and paid for by Colorado consumers with interest.  In return for employing its "skill" in effectuating such transactions, Xcel thought that it should be allowed to retain an astonishing 40% of the proceeds with the remainder being used to buy down the deficit in its renewable accounts (known as the RESA deferred account) so that it could.... you guessed it.... acquire even more RECs at consumer expense for it to sell at a profit using OPM (that's Other People's Money).  Keep in mind that we're talking about margins well into the eight and approaching nine figures here (that's without the decimal point) so this was not exactly pocket change (OK, that's tens and approaching hundreds of millions of dollars in play).  This was about as close to a perpetual motion money making machine as I've ever seen.

The PUC's staff, the Office of Consumer Counsel, large industrial customers and others did recognize that the company should be credited with some finder's fee for identifying these trading opportunities but nowhere near 40%.  They also differed on the mechanism through which the customer share should be returned to ratepayers.  On Tuesday, after volumes of testimony submitted by all sides and aborted settlement negotiations that failed to yield an acceptable outcome, the commission deliberated and made its decision.  Where did they come down?

The ultimate decision awarded Xcel even less than the 20% share proposed by the PUC staff and most of the other intervenors.  The outcome was that Xcel could retain 20% of the first $10 million in margins, 15% of margins greater than $10 million and up to $30 million, and only 10% of margins beyond $30 million -- proof that it doesn't pay to be greedy.  These sharing percentages are to remain in effect through 2014 after which the PUC could reevaluate the situation.  As to the mechanism for returning the customer share, here is where the PUC could have done a better job.  Concerned about the deficit in the RESA deferred account that is well into the tens of millions of dollars (see my RPS rate cap presentation posted elsewhere on this blog), the commission elected to first use the proceeds to pay down the RESA, but I am a bit less concerned about that now that the commission has indicated its intent to keep a closer eye on this.  As is typical we'll have to wait for the final written decision, to be followed by the inevitable RRR (that's application for rehearing, reargument, and reconsideration) before we're fully comfortable with this outcome.  And, unfortunately, none of this completely mitigates the boom and bust I spoke about earlier or the need to transition to clean energy in a sustainable manner as the utility, in its active resource planning docket, has made it clear that it doesn't need any more renewable generation for some time to come.

As for Xcel's application for interim rate relief (docket 11M-951E) that was rejected by the commission on Wednesday, Chairman Epel said it best when he noted that without some showing of adversity, "there is no need for rate relief."  Though their reasons differed, the three commissioners came down on the side of rejecting the interim rate hike.  Commissioner Tarpey noted that the company is already close to its authorized rate of return and Commissioner Baker was the closest to granting the request noting that "regulatory lag could be considered a form of adversity." Fortunately, neither of the other two commissioners bought that argument.  And, while this is encouraging, Xcel still has before the commission its request for a $142 million rate increase (docket 11AL-947E) which has yet to be adjudicated.  All this decision did was prevent the utility from collecting the lion's share of that request prior to a final decision in that case.  Thus, continued vigilance by the public is still necessary.

Back after a hiatus: A Chat About RPS Costs and an Unconventional Solar Array

Folks, you can probably tell that it's been a while since I've kept this blog up to date.  I now hope to do a better job of keeping it current.  But in the time I've been away, the technology has marched on and Blogger has made a number of modifications to its system.  So, to get back into the swing of things, I thought I might just lob myself a softball to get started.

In the presentations widget in the right hand column is an image of a presentation that I gave at the State/Federal RPS Summit in Washington, DC back in October as part of a panel discussing how states are attempting to manage the costs of compliance with their renewable standards.  The gist of that presentation was that Colorado has not done a very good job in that regard.  The state's major utility, Xcel Energy, has bragged about having already met Colorado's 30% RPS clear out to 2028, but this has come about because the utility has "acquired too much, too soon, at too high a cost."  The result is that the actual cost to ratepayers has been far in excess of the 2% rate cap that is also a part of the RPS.  Not unexpectedly, the utility  has gone to great lengths to prevent the disclosure of this fact -- something that the PUC's own Staff has warned about for several years now.  But, the data is what it is.  Fortunately, with a new governor and a new, more cost conscious PUC Chairman, the Commission is finally trying to get these cost overruns under control.  But it's a big job and it will take a while to pay down the deficit in the renewable energy accounts.  Still, a recent decision by the Commission will go a long way in achieving that aim.  More on that in my next column.

Finally, a few days ago, the Wall Street Journal carried a story about a 13-year old boy in Northport, NY who, for a school science project, developed a new way of arraying solar panels to emulate leaves on a tree in the hope that this configuration would yield a greater output than the conventional 2-dimensional rooftop array (see A Youngster's Bright Idea is Something New Under the Sun, WSJ, 05Jan2012).  Well, the so-called experts interviewed for the article were divided on whether or not young Aidan Dwyer's idea had merit and some questioned whether his measurements were valid.  One of these "experts" criticized the experiment for measuring voltage contending that he needed to calculate power.  Sorry, but that's wrong too.  He needed to record energy (as in kWh as opposed to kW).  More importantly, however, is that all of this is irrelevant.  What is relevant is that Aidan's curiosity led him to hypothesize a solution to a problem and devise an experiment to test it.  And that recognition by a 13-year old is more important than whether or not his tree array was more productive than a flat panel array.  Either way, the young scientist is to be commended.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Why Feed-In Tariffs are Not FiT for Colorado

It seems that the renewable energy literature lately has been replete with calls for feed-in tariffs (FiT) to promote renewables, in general, and solar PV, in particular. It is as though because feed-in tariffs have been the incentive of choice to promote renewables in many European countries, we necessarily should adopt them here too. It is true that, if capacity expansion were the only figure of merit, FiTs would be the incentive of choice. But cost, and who pays, is an issue that advocates seem totally unconcerned with. And, serious students of renewable energy generation understand that FiTs have had a decidedly checkered history virtually everywhere they have been adopted. Spain nearly bankrupted its energy infrastructure with an overly generous and poorly conceived FiT and even Germany, often touted as a model of support for solar PV capacity incentives, recently recognized that it was overcompensating developers and quickly moved to reduce its feed-in tariff compensation.

In contrast, the renewable portfolio standard (RPS) approach adopted by many states in the US offers an alternative mechanism for supporting renewable energy capacity expansion that is better suited our regulatory structure. Through market-based REC prices, it also does a better job of recognizing the economic burden that high cost renewables place on ratepayers. An in depth comparison of the two incentive structures would take more space than we have available here, but suffice it to say that some of the important differences concern ratepayer impact, the difficulty of developing a tariff structure that incentivizes generation while not overcompensating developers, market responsiveness (or lack thereof), consideration of cost reductions due to technological advance, and legal restrictions.

In the summer and fall of 2009, the Colorado PUC conducted a comprehensive survey and analysis of existing and proposed feed-in tariffs around the world. Our conclusion was that FiTs were problematic due to the concerns expressed above. It also questioned whether a FiT would prove superior to the very successful renewable and solar programs that Colorado has implemented under its RPS. That study, entitled The Application of Feed-In Tariffs and Other Incentives to Promote Renewable Energy in Colorado can be downloaded from the PUC website. Our investigation into FITs continued this summer with our own internal analysis of the legality of statewide FiTs based on FERC preemption concerns and PURPA restrictions. That analysis concluded that there are very limited circumstances under which a statewide FiT may be implemented by a state regulatory body or legislature. And, some of those circumstances are even more problematic in Colorado due to the Colorado Taxpayer Bill of Rights commonly known as the TABOR amendment. I should point out that individual utilities as well as coops and muni utilities are free to implement a FiT as they desire. What is at issue here is whether or not a state body may order a FiT for any class of utilities. Our assessment of a state's limited authority to implement a FiT was, coincidentally, affirmed by a recent FERC decision pursuant to a California PUC case. A fact sheet describing the essential elements of that case is available here.

Perhaps more important than the legality of FiTs is whether or not they are the most effective and efficient way of fostering renewable energy generation. It is clear to me that they are not. Aside from the concerns with ratepayer impact and market responsiveness already discussed, markets in which they have been implemented have been subjected to boom and bust cycles (the highly touted Gainesville, FL program is a prime example). FiTs are simply not the way to develop a sustainable renewable industry. From a policy perspective, one must determine if the goal of an incentive program is to guarantee a rate of return to a generator (as with FiT programs) or to simply compensate renewable generators for their above market costs of doing the right thing. I would argue that the latter approach is more considerate of the additional costs being shouldered by ratepayers.

It is also clear that the guaranteed RoR provided by a FiT fails to motivate the technological advance needed to bring renewables to grid parity and economic sustainability. And I am not alone in this belief. Tech entrepreneur and Sun Microsystems cofounder Vinod Khosla writes:

"Every time there is a carve-out for some technology or deployment method, a market is being warped, and suddenly the chosen technology doesn’t need to compete and minimize cost in order to ‘win’ (case in point, solar feed-in tariffs in Europe, and more recently, Oregon). Consumers lose and excluded technology development slows down.” (Greentech Media, 16Jul2010)

Dr. Petri Konttinen also writes that FiTs are “successful in the short term but risk creating false and unsustainable markets vulnerable to speculators.” (07Jun2010)

The bottom line in this message should be that you cannot build a sustainable energy infrastructure on a foundation of unsustainable economics.

Unfortunately, proponents of FiTs seem totally unconcerned with any of the difficulties I've discussed. I was recently invited to participate in a panel discussion of feed-in tariffs to be held in Boulder, Colorado on July 22 organized by a California based advocacy group called the FIT Coalition. Though initially reluctant, I was convinced to participate by the panel moderator because he felt that I could bring some balance to the discussion, particularly with regard to the regulatory and legal considerations. It turns out that my initial reluctance was well founded as the workshop organizers ordered the moderator to "uninvite" me because they did not want an opposing viewpoint. The FiT intelligentsia, it seems, can be every bit as despotic as the antirenewable orthodoxy they condemn. Whether they simply fear alternative viewpoints or are defending a pecuniary interest, I'm not sure. Probably both. So, given that I won't have an opportunity to give the brief presentation I developed, I am posting the slide presentation here for you to view. Of course, you won't have the benefit of the comments that expand on the bullet points, but for the most part you can probably read between the lines.

Colorado's Tiered Electric Rates

Since the start of the summer when Xcel's new two-tiered rate scheme went into effect in Colorado, the PUC customer complaint line has been ringing off the hook. And, really, it's no wonder to anyone who has given this rate structure more than a modicum of thought. In the PUC propaganda promoting its decision approving the two-tiered rates, the PUC Chairman proclaimed that "For years, consumers have advocated 'the more you use, the more you pay' for electricity." Really? I wonder what consumers he's been talking to?

But, truthfully, this is a serious topic and those who complain about the tiered rate schedule are not all wrong, even though some may not artfully express their dissatisfaction. I agree with the sentiment that those who impose the greatest load during peak times should perhaps shoulder the greater incremental cost. But, if the average use is, as Xcel noted, 657 kWh per month, then the 500 kWh threshold at which the higher rate goes into effect seems exceedingly low. Does that imply that the average user is wasteful? What about the unfortunate person who is on an oxygen generator that by itself consumes over 300 kWh per month? Or the person who installed a ground source heat pump in the name of efficiency and is now being penalized because the electric pumps for those systems run much more often. And, those respondents who noted that Denver water users were so successful in heeding the Water Board's call for conservation that rates had to increase because revenues fell so drastically expressed a very valid concern. So much for the argument about efficiency saving consumers money. The same could easily happen here.

From a societal standpoint, I am not convinced that average rates (what we have traditionally had) are not in the best interests of the community as a whole. After all, we're not talking about a luxury here but a necessity. And, that is why the monopolist is regulated. If you want to place a luxury tax on the commodity, then increase the threshold for the more expensive tier to something that is truly reflective of luxury use rather than necessary use. Moreover, Xcel's two-tier rates for June-September don't seem particularly targeted at peak loads, just aggregate demand by individual users. If we want to fiddle with rates to promote energy conservation, then TOU rates would be better than a naive two-tier rate that does not provide adequate discrimination between uses. TOU rates would at least allow many of the consumers who have a valid use to shift it to lower cost times. We need a tool that can be applied with more precision than a sledge hammer.

Of course, TOU rates would require new, so-called "smart meters" which Xcel would be only too happy to foist on ratepayers. But the problem there is that the PUC and Colorado legislature seem only too happy to jump into palliative, partial solutions without considering all of their ramifications. While the PUC does have open a couple of "investigatory dockets" into matters such as data privacy and cyber security, one would think that it would address those issues before entertaining utility applications for cost recovery of its Boulder Smart Grid City experiment.

It seems a particularly perverse notion of technological innovation in which the goal is to increase the cost of a commodity necessity to the end user. If the computer industry had adopted this model of innovation you'd still be reading your morning paper on newsprint and blogs would be handed out on street corners as they were in colonial days. Rather than coercing users to use less of what has been called the "master resource," shouldn't the focus be on making its production more efficient, with less environmental impact, AND at lower cost?

Thursday, December 10, 2009

It's Just Good Engineering....

It's rather interesting that on the heels of the Climategate email controversy the World Meteorological Organization publishes a report stating that the decade from 2000 to 2009 was the warmest on record. No, I don't think that this was intended to deflect the public's attention from the controversy although it may seem that way to some. It is, however, seriously disappointing to learn that some climate scientists apparently suspended their belief in true scientific discourse in favor of manipulating data that conflicted with their advocacy.

One of the most cogent arguments that I have seen in favor of dealing with climate change was recently published in a New York Times op-ed column by Thomas Friedman entitled Going Cheney on Climate. Frankly, he could have made the point about the need to plan for low probability, high impact events quite well sans the Cheney analogy, but I suppose it made for a good headline. Aside from the fact that it is simply prudent to plan for such events, he notes that there are several benefits that society would realize from transitioning to clean energy, not the least of which would be greater innovation and energy independence.

But, beyond that, I look at it another way. My engineering training tells me that it is simply good engineering to make the most efficient use of the inputs to production. Why exhaust depletable resources for energy production when there are nondepletable alternatives available? What I'm suggesting here is that there may be a higher economic use of petroleum than setting fire to it (such as creating plastics and other high tech materials). This all comes back to the multiple reasons for promoting renewables and energy efficiency that seem to have been lost in the global warming debate: technological advance, economic development, conservation of scarce resources (including water), etc. This is not just about CO2, or shouldn't be.

In my last column, I noted that climate change was not the only serious issue facing society, and that is still true. But, it doesn't mean that we don't begin to work toward dealing with it, and whether or not there will be a catastrophe in 2050 or whenever is beside the point. We should be good stewards of the only planet we have to live on. That is just good engineering. But, in terms of the contradictory evidence, it is far from clear to me that there are not other natural events beyond our control that may suddenly raise or lower the temperature of the earth more than our actions. For instance, it has been theorized since the mid-1960s that sudden small changes in the orbit and tilt of the earth were the principal cause of successive periods of glacial advance and retreat. If true, all of our mechanations to strictly maintain the temperature of the earth at the levels known in the short time span of recorded history may be for naught. Perhaps adaptation would be a better strategy. Nonetheless, logic and good engineering should tell us that we cannot significantly alter the composition of the atmosphere without some impact. And, while it seems clear that human activities have resulted in a dramatic increase in CO2 within a relatively short time span, the presumed correlation between CO2 and temperature and the notion that it is irreversible is less clear. The fact that one of Kevin Trenberth's emails in the climate controversy noted that it is a "travesty that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment" illustrates that point.

I have written previously about the religious fervor that permeates the debate on global warming, renewable energy development, and related issues. What I expect from scientists is that they will pursue new knowledge regardless of the direction it leads them. When scientific skepticism and inquiry is replaced by advocacy in pursuit of a largely political agenda, that is when scientists lose credibility. And, we cannot afford that because there are more than enough advocates of one agenda or another espousing their beliefs and publishing studies in support of their position.

One final thought about the continuing discussion of cap and trade and the supposed incentive that it provides as a mechanism to reduce greenhouse gases. This approach merely promises to enrich those that trade in allowances and offsets and the inevitable derivatives that some smart guys will devise to take advantage of the opportunities. In another op-ed piece in the New York Times entitled Cap and Fade, James Hansen identifies the problem well:
"Because cap and trade is enforced through the selling and trading of permits, it actually perpetuates the pollution it is supposed to eliminate. If every polluter's emissions fell below the incrementally lowered cap, then the price of pollution credits would collapse and the economic rationale to keep reducing pollution would disappear."
Let's come back to the basics of regulation. If greenhouse gases are to be considered a criteria pollutant, simply tax or restrict their emissions. Period. And, if you think that offsets are a helpful component of cap and trade schemes, you may be interested in a somewhat tongue and cheek website on this topic called Cheat Neutral.


So, in summary, the science is not settled and the proposed market based solutions are a wrong-headed approach to dealing with the issue. It comes down to just doing the right thing, and that is just good engineering.